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# Lessons from Chris Bradley Of McKinsey
- URL: https://www.antoinebuteau.com/lessons-from-chris-bradley-of-mckinsey/
- Published: 2025-08-14T01:38:19.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-06T14:25:43.000Z
- Description: Chris Bradley, a McKinsey & Company senior partner and McKinsey Global Institute director, advances a data-driven view of strategy. He argues against incrementalism, urging bold action rooted in market realities, internal biases, and a more empirical, human-centered process.
- Author: Antoine Buteau
- Tags: Profile, #Consulting, Leadership & Management Thinkers Profiles

Chris Bradley is a McKinsey senior partner and a director of the McKinsey Global Institute. He coauthored Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick and A Century of Plenty, linking empirical strategy research with questions about long-term economic progress. — [McKinsey: Chris Bradley](https://www.mckinsey.com/our-people/chris-bradley?ref=antoinebuteau.com).

![Infographic for "Lessons from Chris Bradley Of McKinsey".](https://www.antoinebuteau.com/content/images/2026/07/011993dd-6412-45a6-83d2-796fa353645f-22ef547d-be5f-4e1f-bf7d-3c28d6ba8b84-optimized.webp)

## On the Nature of Strategy and its Evolution

The very foundation of how we approach strategy has been a central theme in Chris Bradley's work. He argues for a more dynamic, empirical, and human-centric view of strategy development. — [McKinsey: The Art of Strategy](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-art-of-strategy?ref=antoinebuteau.com).

**Learnings:**

1. **Treat Strategy as an Evolving Discipline:** In a joint McKinsey interview, Angus Dawson dates strategy's corporate mainstreaming to the 1970s; Bradley adds that empirical research, psychology and adult learning have since deepened the practice. — [McKinsey: The Art of Strategy](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-art-of-strategy?ref=antoinebuteau.com).
2. **Go Beyond Frameworks:** Dawson recalls an earlier reliance on strategic frameworks; Bradley argues that empirical analysis and psychology add rigor to how leaders develop and implement strategy. — [McKinsey: The Art of Strategy](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-art-of-strategy?ref=antoinebuteau.com).
3. **Strategy is not just an intellectual exercise.** It is a social process that involves the thoughts and feelings of a company's leaders. [— McKinsey: The Art of Strategy.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-art-of-strategy?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
4. **Finish Strategy with Resource Commitments:** Angus Dawson, speaking alongside Bradley, says strategy is unfinished until leaders translate it into near-term goals, communicate the change and shift resources. A plan without budget movement is not yet implemented. — [McKinsey: The Art of Strategy](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-art-of-strategy?ref=antoinebuteau.com).
5. **Good strategy requires a multi-disciplinary approach.** It combines analytical rigor with an understanding of organizational psychology and learning styles. [— McKinsey: The Art of Strategy.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-art-of-strategy?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
6. **Make Optimism an Investment Choice:** Bradley and his coauthors describe future prosperity as possible, not inevitable. Bradley argues that pessimism can become self-fulfilling when it discourages investment in future generations. — [McKinsey: A Century of Plenty](https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/pulling-off-another-century-of-human-progress?ref=antoinebuteau.com).

**Quotes and perspectives:**

1. "Strategy's not just about what's written on the paper but about the thinking and feeling processes of the leaders of the company." [— McKinsey: The Art of Strategy.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-art-of-strategy?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
2. **Angus Dawson on Strategy Meetings:** In the joint interview, Dawson warns that tidy meetings designed for sign-off are unlikely to surface the hard choices behind consequential strategy. — [McKinsey: The Art of Strategy](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-art-of-strategy?ref=antoinebuteau.com).
3. **Angus Dawson on Social Process:** Dawson argues that leaders need a process in which they can confront big ideas and revise entrenched beliefs about the company's future. — [McKinsey: The Art of Strategy](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-art-of-strategy?ref=antoinebuteau.com).
4. **Angus Dawson on Conviction:** Dawson says implementation is unlikely if leaders have not grappled with a new strategy enough to develop genuine conviction. — [McKinsey: The Art of Strategy](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-art-of-strategy?ref=antoinebuteau.com).
5. "One of the trends in the way we're looking at strategy is to be very analytical about it. And what we're finding is a whole series of empirical norms that are actually challenging many of the ways companies actually do strategy." [— McKinsey: The Art of Strategy.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-art-of-strategy?ref=antoinebuteau.com)

## The "Hockey Stick" and the Social Side of Strategy

A cornerstone of Bradley's research is the critique of the ubiquitous "hockey stick" financial projection and the social dynamics that produce such unrealistic plans. — [Bradley, Hirt & Smit interview](https://www.marketingjournal.org/strategy-beyond-the-hockey-stick-an-interview-with-chris-bradley-martin-hirt-and-sven-smit/?ref=antoinebuteau.com).

**Learnings:**

1. **Beware of "hockey stick" projections.** These charts, which show a future of rosy growth after a brief dip, are often a product of optimism and a desire to secure resources rather than a realistic assessment. [— Bradley, Hirt & Smit interview.](https://www.marketingjournal.org/strategy-beyond-the-hockey-stick-an-interview-with-chris-bradley-martin-hirt-and-sven-smit/?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
2. **The "social side of strategy" is a major obstacle.** Personal agendas, risk aversion, and cognitive biases within the strategy room often prevent the development of bold and effective strategies. [— Bradley, Hirt & Smit interview.](https://www.marketingjournal.org/strategy-beyond-the-hockey-stick-an-interview-with-chris-bradley-martin-hirt-and-sven-smit/?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
3. **Use the Right Base Rate:** In Bradley and his coauthors' historical sample, only about 8% of companies in the middle three quintiles of economic profit reached the top quintile over a decade. That is a cohort base rate, not the success probability of every strategy. — [McKinsey: Strategy to Beat the Odds](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-to-beat-the-odds?ref=antoinebuteau.com).
4. **Overcoming social dynamics is key.** To break the cycle of hockey stick projections, companies need to introduce reliable, external benchmarks to ground their strategic conversations in reality. [— Bradley, Hirt & Smit interview.](https://www.marketingjournal.org/strategy-beyond-the-hockey-stick-an-interview-with-chris-bradley-martin-hirt-and-sven-smit/?ref=antoinebuteau.com)

**Quotes:**

1. "There are far more agendas in the strategy room than just developing a winning strategy. Understandably, budgets are being negotiated, resources are being protected, and jobs and promotions are on the line." [— Bradley, Hirt & Smit interview.](https://www.marketingjournal.org/strategy-beyond-the-hockey-stick-an-interview-with-chris-bradley-martin-hirt-and-sven-smit/?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
2. "The process is clouded by self-interest, internal politics and biases, such as risk aversion and the desire to see your assumptions confirmed. We call this ‘the social side of strategy.’" [— Bradley, Hirt & Smit interview.](https://www.marketingjournal.org/strategy-beyond-the-hockey-stick-an-interview-with-chris-bradley-martin-hirt-and-sven-smit/?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
3. "What you typically see in strategy meetings are hockey stick charts. They confidently swoop upward to a rosy future growth, after an initial dip to account for investment in the first year." [— Bradley, Hirt & Smit interview.](https://www.marketingjournal.org/strategy-beyond-the-hockey-stick-an-interview-with-chris-bradley-martin-hirt-and-sven-smit/?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
4. "Their primary goal is to get a ‘yes’ for resources the manager is requesting, so they have to be highly optimistic." [— Bradley, Hirt & Smit interview.](https://www.marketingjournal.org/strategy-beyond-the-hockey-stick-an-interview-with-chris-bradley-martin-hirt-and-sven-smit/?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
5. "You need reliable calibration that lets you gauge the odds of a given strategy succeeding." [— Bradley, Hirt & Smit interview.](https://www.marketingjournal.org/strategy-beyond-the-hockey-stick-an-interview-with-chris-bradley-martin-hirt-and-sven-smit/?ref=antoinebuteau.com)

## The Power Curve and the Importance of "Big Moves"

Bradley and his colleagues introduced the "Power Curve" to illustrate the distribution of economic profit. Their research shows that a small number of companies capture the vast majority of economic profit, and moving up this curve requires significant, deliberate actions. — [McKinsey: Strategy to Beat the Odds](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-to-beat-the-odds?ref=antoinebuteau.com).

**Learnings:**

1. **Economic profit follows a Power Curve.** A small percentage of companies at the top capture most of the economic profit, while the majority in the middle generate very little. [— McKinsey: Strategy to Beat the Odds.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-to-beat-the-odds?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
2. **Make Moves Large Enough to Matter:** The team's analysis finds that incremental changes often leave firms in the middle of the economic-profit curve; sustained, competitively large moves can improve their odds of moving up. — [McKinsey: Strategy to Beat the Odds](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-to-beat-the-odds?ref=antoinebuteau.com).
3. **There are five key "big moves."** These are: programmatic M&A, dynamic resource reallocation, strong capital expenditure programs, differentiation improvements, and productivity improvements. [— McKinsey: Strategy to Beat the Odds.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-to-beat-the-odds?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
4. **Big moves are more effective in combination.** Making three big moves can increase a company's odds of rising to the top quintile to 47%. [— McKinsey: Strategy to Beat the Odds.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-to-beat-the-odds?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
5. **Big moves can overcome a poor starting position.** Even companies with a weak initial endowment can dramatically improve their performance by making several significant strategic moves. [— McKinsey: Strategy to Beat the Odds.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-to-beat-the-odds?ref=antoinebuteau.com)

**Quotes:**

1. "It is nearly impossible to make big strategic moves if resources are spread thinly, like peanut butter on toast, across all businesses and operations." [— Bradley, Hirt & Smit interview.](https://www.marketingjournal.org/strategy-beyond-the-hockey-stick-an-interview-with-chris-bradley-martin-hirt-and-sven-smit/?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
2. "Our data show that you're far more likely to make a major move up the Power Curve because one or two businesses break out than because every business or operation improved in lockstep." [— Bradley, Hirt & Smit interview.](https://www.marketingjournal.org/strategy-beyond-the-hockey-stick-an-interview-with-chris-bradley-martin-hirt-and-sven-smit/?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
3. "If I meet your average company and I know nothing else about you except that you are in the middle quintile of economic profit, I know your base-rate probability of a strategic breakthrough is 8 percent, or one in 12." [— McKinsey: Bold Strategy Moves.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/how-to-make-the-bold-strategy-moves-that-matter?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
4. "Making strong moves with a poor inheritance is about as valuable as making poor moves with a strong inheritance." [— McKinsey: Strategy to Beat the Odds.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-to-beat-the-odds?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
5. "Even if you are improving on all five measures, what matters is how you stack up against your competitors." [— McKinsey: Strategy to Beat the Odds.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-to-beat-the-odds?ref=antoinebuteau.com)

## Eight Shifts to a Better Strategy Process

To counter the social pitfalls of strategy and enable "big moves," Bradley and his co-authors propose eight fundamental shifts in how companies approach strategic planning. — [McKinsey: Eight Strategy Shifts](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/eight-shifts-that-will-take-your-strategy-into-high-gear?ref=antoinebuteau.com).

**Learnings:**

1. **Shift from annual planning to strategy as a journey.** Strategy should be an ongoing dialogue, not a once-a-year event. [— McKinsey: Eight Strategy Shifts.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/eight-shifts-that-will-take-your-strategy-into-high-gear?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
2. **Shift from getting to "yes" to debating real alternatives.** Encourage genuine debate and consider multiple strategic options rather than seeking quick approval for a single plan. [— McKinsey: Eight Strategy Shifts.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/eight-shifts-that-will-take-your-strategy-into-high-gear?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
3. **Back the Few Breakout Opportunities:** Rather than distribute resources evenly across business units, identify the one or two opportunities with plausible breakout potential and allocate enough to make a material move. — [McKinsey: Eight Strategy Shifts](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/eight-shifts-that-will-take-your-strategy-into-high-gear?ref=antoinebuteau.com).
4. **Shift from approving budgets to making "big moves."** The focus of the strategy process should be on identifying and committing to game-changing initiatives. [— McKinsey: Eight Strategy Shifts.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/eight-shifts-that-will-take-your-strategy-into-high-gear?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
5. **Shift from budget inertia to liquid resources.** Actively free up and reallocate resources to where they can have the most impact. [— McKinsey: Eight Strategy Shifts.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/eight-shifts-that-will-take-your-strategy-into-high-gear?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
6. **Shift from sandbagging to open-risk portfolios.** Manage risk at a corporate level and create a culture that is open to taking calculated risks. [— McKinsey: Eight Strategy Shifts.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/eight-shifts-that-will-take-your-strategy-into-high-gear?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
7. **Shift from "you are your numbers" to a holistic perspective on performance.** Evaluate performance based on a broader set of metrics than just short-term financial results. [— McKinsey: Eight Strategy Shifts.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/eight-shifts-that-will-take-your-strategy-into-high-gear?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
8. **Force the First Step:** Work backward from a long-range vision to achievable near-term milestones; if the first step cannot be taken, the strategy needs revision. — [McKinsey: Eight Strategy Shifts](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/eight-shifts-that-will-take-your-strategy-into-high-gear?ref=antoinebuteau.com).

**Quote:**

1. "If you want to drive strategic change in your company, you should be its chief liquidity officer. You can't move resources that aren't liquid. In other words, you cannot reallocate if you don't also de-allocate." [— McKinsey: Jumpstart Strategy.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/jumpstart-a-better-way-to-do-strategy?ref=antoinebuteau.com)

## The Ten Timeless Tests of Strategy

Before the publication of his book, Bradley co-developed a framework to help executives assess the quality of their strategies. — [McKinsey: Ten Timeless Tests](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/have-you-tested-your-strategy-lately?ref=antoinebuteau.com).

**Learnings:**

1. **Will your strategy beat the market?** A good strategy must aim to outperform the competition, not just keep pace. [— McKinsey: Ten Timeless Tests.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/have-you-tested-your-strategy-lately?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
2. **Does your strategy tap into a true source of advantage?** It's crucial to correctly diagnose why your company earns returns. [— McKinsey: Ten Timeless Tests.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/have-you-tested-your-strategy-lately?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
3. **Is your strategy granular about where to compete?** Defining markets in a conventional way can lead to static resource allocation. [— McKinsey: Ten Timeless Tests.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/have-you-tested-your-strategy-lately?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
4. **Does your strategy put you ahead of trends and discontinuities?** A robust strategy anticipates and adapts to major shifts in the market. [— McKinsey: Ten Timeless Tests.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/have-you-tested-your-strategy-lately?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
5. **Does your strategy contain privileged insights and foresight?** It should be based on more than just commonly available data. [— McKinsey: Ten Timeless Tests.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/have-you-tested-your-strategy-lately?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
6. **Does Your Strategy Embrace Uncertainty?:** Characterize the uncertainty you face and use scenarios for what cannot be resolved, rather than assuming certainty or becoming paralyzed. — [McKinsey: Ten Timeless Tests](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/have-you-tested-your-strategy-lately?ref=antoinebuteau.com).
7. **Does your strategy balance commitment with flexibility?** It should make clear choices while allowing for adaptation. [— McKinsey: Ten Timeless Tests.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/have-you-tested-your-strategy-lately?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
8. **Is your strategy contaminated by bias?** Be aware of and challenge potential biases and untested assumptions. [— McKinsey: Ten Timeless Tests.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/have-you-tested-your-strategy-lately?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
9. **Is there conviction to act?** A great strategy is useless without the collective will to implement it. [— McKinsey: Ten Timeless Tests.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/have-you-tested-your-strategy-lately?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
10. **Have you translated your strategy into an action plan?** The strategy must be broken down into clear, actionable steps. [— McKinsey: Ten Timeless Tests.](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/have-you-tested-your-strategy-lately?ref=antoinebuteau.com)

**Quote:**

1. "Take prescriptions of greatness with a grain of salt. In particular, watch out for the common tendency to underplay the role of context and luck, and over-attribute success to things that are easily visible, controllable or flattering." [— Chris Bradley: Greatest Companies.](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-happened-worlds-greatest-companies-chris-bradley?ref=antoinebuteau.com)

---

Learn more:

1. [The art of strategy, with Chris Bradley and Angus Dawson - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vyt9mAFxWd4&ref=antoinebuteau.com)
2. [The art of strategy | McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-art-of-strategy?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
3. [“Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick” - An Interview with Chris Bradley, Martin Hirt and Sven Smit - The Marketing Journal](https://www.marketingjournal.org/strategy-beyond-the-hockey-stick-an-interview-with-chris-bradley-martin-hirt-and-sven-smit/?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
4. [How to measure your strategy's odds of success | McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/measuring-your-strategys-odds-of-success?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
5. [Strategy to beat the odds | McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-to-beat-the-odds?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
6. [How to make the bold strategy moves that matter - McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/how-to-make-the-bold-strategy-moves-that-matter?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
7. [Eight shifts that will take your strategy into high gear | McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/eight-shifts-that-will-take-your-strategy-into-high-gear?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
8. [Jumpstart a better way to do strategy - McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/jumpstart-a-better-way-to-do-strategy?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
9. [Have you tested your strategy lately? — McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/have-you-tested-your-strategy-lately?ref=antoinebuteau.com)
10. [What happened to the world’s “greatest” companies? — Chris Bradley](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-happened-worlds-greatest-companies-chris-bradley?ref=antoinebuteau.com)