Joel Mokyr, a renowned economic historian at Northwestern University, has dedicated his career to understanding the historical roots of modern prosperity. His work provides profound insights into the dynamics of technology, knowledge, and culture in shaping economic growth.
On the Nature of Economic Growth
- "Nations and their economies grow in large part because they increase their collective knowledge about nature and their environment, and because they are able to direct this knowledge toward productive ends."[1][2]
- Learning: Economic progress is fundamentally driven by the accumulation and application of "useful knowledge."
- "Economic growth and economic progress is not driven by the masses. It is not driven by the population at large."[3]
- Learning: A relatively small group of skilled individuals, including engineers, mechanics, and scientists, are the primary drivers of technological and economic advancement.[3]
- "The drivers of technological progress and eventually economic performance were attitude and aptitude."[1][2]
- Learning: A society's willingness to investigate the natural world (attitude) and its ability to apply that understanding (aptitude) are crucial for economic development.
- "...useful knowledge as far as anybody knows does not seem to run into diminishing returns..."[4]
- Learning: Unlike other sources of growth like trade, the expansion of knowledge can provide a sustained, long-term engine for economic progress.[4]
- "For most of human history, and in almost all the societies that we know, there has been an almost paralyzing amount of respect for the learning of earlier generations."[5]
- Learning: A critical departure from revering ancient wisdom in favor of new discoveries was a key cultural shift that enabled modern economic growth.
- "...the unprecedented prosperity enjoyed today by a substantial proportion of humanity stems from accidental factors to a degree greater than is commonly supposed."[6]
- Learning: The sustained technological progress we experience is a historical exception, not the norm.[6]
- "...the curse of concavity...is a fancy way of saying that other forms of economic growth particularly the sort of gains from trade that Adam Smith was so keen on...start running in diminishing returns..."[4]
- Learning: While important, growth from trade and institutional improvements eventually levels off; growth from knowledge does not have the same inherent limits.[4]
- "Economic stagnation, not growth, has been the norm for most of human history."[7]
- Learning: The continuous economic growth of the last two centuries is a recent and historically unusual phenomenon.
- "The Great Enrichment... depended on a set of radical changes in beliefs, values, and preferences—a set I will refer to as 'culture'…"[8]
- Learning: Cultural shifts, particularly within Europe's educated elite, laid the essential groundwork for the Industrial Revolution.
- "My view is that the modern enrichment and the huge amount of economic growth that we have experienced in the last 200 years is first and foremost the result of the fact that we know so much more than people did in 1500..."[9]
- Learning: The vast expansion of our knowledge base about the natural world is the primary cause of modern prosperity.[9]
On Technology and Innovation
- "Technological progress is like a fragile and vulnerable plant, whose nourishing is not only dependent on the appropriate surroundings and climate, but whose life is almost always short."[6]
- Learning: Innovation is not automatic; it requires a supportive social and economic environment to flourish.[6]
- "Technological change involves an attack by an individual on a constrain everyone else takes as given."[10]
- Learning: True innovation comes from challenging existing limitations and assumptions.[10]
- "Technology is at its very core a relation of people with the physical environment and not with other people."[8]
- Learning: At its heart, technology is about humanity's ability to understand and manipulate nature for its benefit.
- "If England led the rest of the world in the Industrial Revolution, it was despite, not because of her formal education system."[11]
- Learning: Practical skills and informal knowledge networks among artisans and engineers were more critical to early industrialization than formal schooling.
- "The Industrial Revolution became possible when mechanics and machine tools could translate ideas and blue prints into accurate and reliable prototypes."[10]
- Learning: Innovation requires not just brilliant ideas, but also the technical skill and tools to bring them to life.
- "Technological progress involves that people play God. That's just how technological progress is... We are the dominant species on this planet, and we play God."[9]
- Learning: From creating new species of plants and animals to modern genetic engineering, technological advancement is inherently about reshaping the natural world.[9]
- "...technological progress in a world of artisanal tinkering and learning-by-doing alone... would eventually run into diminishing returns..."[12]
- Learning: For innovation to be sustained, practical invention must be connected to a deeper, formal understanding of scientific principles.[12]
- "Prior to the Industrial Revolution, technological innovation was primarily based on prescriptive knowledge. People knew that something worked, but not why."[7]
- Learning: The crucial shift was connecting practical inventions with propositional knowledge (the "why"), which allowed for continuous and deliberate improvement.[7]
- "If you don't know why something works, it's very difficult to improve it, to tweak it."[13]
- Learning: Scientific understanding is the key to moving beyond one-off inventions to a system of sustained technological progress.[13]
- "Technological progress is neither good nor bad, nor is it neutral." (Kranzberg's Law, frequently cited by Mokyr).[3]
- Learning: Technology's impact is complex and has unforeseen consequences that are shaped by the society that uses it.[3]
On Culture, Institutions, and the "Republic of Letters"
- "Irreverence is a key to progress."[1]
- Learning: A willingness to question and challenge established authorities and ancient wisdom is a necessary precondition for innovation.
- "Competition creates the kind of environment in which innovation turns out to thrive... So competition between many nations, in many ways, is very beneficial."[5]
- Learning: Political fragmentation in Europe fostered competition among states for the best minds and ideas, preventing any single power from halting progress.[5]
- "The Republic of Letters that began to emerge in Europe... is the most significant institutional development that explains the technology-led quantum leap in economic performance..."[8]
- Learning: This transnational network of scholars who shared and critiqued new ideas created a competitive market for knowledge that was essential for the Enlightenment and Industrial Revolution.[8]
- "Political fragmentation (the presence of a large number of European states) made it possible for heterodox ideas to thrive, as entrepreneurs, innovators, ideologues, and heretics could easily flee to a neighbouring state..."[14]
- Learning: Europe's lack of a single, overarching authority meant that new and controversial ideas couldn't be easily suppressed, unlike in large, centralized empires like China.[14]
- "In short, what was missing in China's institutions was a high level of competitiveness, both in the market for ideas and at the level of political power."[8]
- Learning: Despite its advanced early technology, China's centralized state and lack of a competitive market for ideas hindered the kind of sustained innovation seen in Europe.[8]
- "A culture of growth replaced the stasis that had enveloped Europe as 'changes in the market for ideas' widened the range of knowledge and allowed 'cultural entrepreneurs' to flourish."[15]
- Learning: Key thinkers like Francis Bacon and Isaac Newton acted as "cultural entrepreneurs" who successfully promoted the idea that knowledge should be used to improve the human condition.[15]
- "...it was a turning point when intellectuals started to conceive of knowledge as cumulative."[14]
- Learning: The belief that knowledge can be continuously built upon, corrected, and expanded by successive generations is a cornerstone of modern progress.
- "As long as there is adequate mobility of both ideas and the people generating them, it will be impossible to stop innovation from occurring."[12]
- Learning: The free movement of talent and knowledge across borders is a powerful force for global innovation.
- "New technology is often met with resistance from established interest groups who feel their privileges are threatened."[7]
- Learning: A society's ability to grow depends on its capacity to overcome resistance to the "creative destruction" that innovation inevitably brings.[7]
- "Good institutions will keep us from going backward, but good institutions can fall to bad ones."[16]
- Learning: While knowledge is the engine of progress, supportive institutions are necessary to maintain it, and they are not guaranteed to last.[16]
On the Future of Progress
- "There's no sign whatsoever that our capacity to learn new things is slowing down."[16]
- Learning: The expansion of human knowledge continues at a rapid pace, suggesting that the primary driver of economic growth remains strong.[16]
- "...the very best time to be born in human history is today. That sounds hard to believe in an age where we're all running around with face masks and facing quarantine, but it's still true."[13]
- Learning: Despite current challenges, the long-term historical perspective shows a dramatic and ongoing improvement in human welfare.[13]
- "We have SUVs and video games, so what else could we possibly want? That's mistaken."[16]
- Learning: The idea that human needs are satiated is wrong; we face immense challenges like climate change that will require even more innovation and resources.[16]
- "...the needs of the world to create more resources, find more solutions, are probably greater today than they were even 15 or 20 years ago."[16]
- Learning: Modern challenges demand continued economic and technological growth to generate the resources and solutions required to address them.[16]
- "There is no technological reason for growth in economic welfare to slow down, although institutions may become in some area a serious concern on the sustainability of growth."[12]
- Learning: The primary threat to future progress is not a lack of new ideas or technologies, but the potential for political and social institutions to stifle innovation.
- "If the twentieth century has shown us anything, it is that the capacity of humans for intolerance, stupidity, and selfishness has not declined as their technological power has increased."[2]
- Learning: Technological progress is not a panacea for human failings and does not guarantee social or moral improvement.[2]
- "Technology makes people more powerful in exploiting nature, but how and for what purpose they do so remains indeterminate."[2]
- Learning: Technology is a tool; its ultimate impact depends on the wisdom and values of the people who wield it.
- "Human knowledge is expanding just as fast today as it ever has, and I see no evidence that there's an upper limit to it."[16]
- Learning: Pessimism about the end of major discoveries is likely unfounded, as the methods and tools for research are themselves improving.
- "...the welfare state has... basically made sure that [those whose skills have become obsolete] have not been left behind... they are still not feeling that they've become completely marginalized."[9]
- Learning: Social safety nets are important for maintaining political support for technological progress by mitigating the negative consequences for those who are displaced.[9]
- "Sustained growth cannot be taken for granted."[7]
- Learning: We must actively maintain the cultural and institutional frameworks that allow for open inquiry and creative destruction to ensure future prosperity.[7]
On the Study of History and Economics
- "I use economics to understand history, and I use history to understand economics."[13]
- Learning: The two disciplines are deeply intertwined and offer complementary perspectives for understanding long-term societal change.
- "If somebody utters the sentence that starts with the words, 'History teaches us' the rest of the sentence is probably wrong."[13]
- Learning: History does not provide simple, direct lessons for the present, as our current context is always unique.[13]
- "Our own age is sufficiently different, sufficiently unique, from what happened in the past that any facile lessons from history are more likely to mislead than to enlighten."[13]
- Learning: While we can learn from historical processes, we must be cautious about drawing direct parallels or expecting history to repeat itself.
- "The Industrial Revolution illuminates the limitations of the compartmentalization of historical sciences."[17]
- Learning: Understanding major historical shifts requires an interdisciplinary approach that combines economic, social, cultural, and technological history.
- "The Industrial Revolution was the slow replacement of trade and finance and commerce by another thing, and that is growing knowledge of natural phenomena and rules that can be harnessed to material welfare of people.”[13]
- Learning: The fundamental nature of economic activity shifted around 1750 from being primarily about exchange (trade) to being primarily about the creation of new knowledge.[13]
- "The issue of causality becomes somewhat of an obsession in economics these days, and economic history is very much a part of this."[13]
- Learning: A key goal of modern economic history is to move beyond correlation to understand the deep causal mechanisms that drive economic development.
- "Most nations realize they... have to be part of an international competitive system in which they import ideas, they import techniques..."[4]
- Learning: In the modern globalized world, participation in the international exchange of knowledge is non-negotiable for any country that wants to prosper.
- "Growth produces resources, and we will need resources to tackle these challenges..."[16]
- Learning: Economic growth is not an end in itself but a means to acquire the capacity to solve major societal problems.
- "...the bad news is that progress also depends on institutions... it's not obvious to me that institutions are getting better."[16]
- Learning: While the engine of knowledge creation is strong, the political and social frameworks necessary to support it are facing significant challenges globally.[16]
- "Bad governments also use the resources to oppress the population, or misallocate resources. They invade other countries or spend their resources to surveil their own people."[16]
- Learning: The fruits of technological progress can be squandered or used for destructive purposes in the absence of good governance and sound institutions.[16]
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