Lessons from Noah Smith

Noah Smith, an influential voice in contemporary economics and public discourse, is known for his blog Noahpinion, his former column at Bloomberg, and his active presence in policy debates. His writings blend economic analysis with a pragmatic, techno-optimist worldview.

On Techno-Optimism and Progress

Quote: "For those who recently started reading Noahpinion, I created it as an explicitly techno-optimist blog back in late 2020. The success of Covid vaccines and the explosion of renewable energy gave me hope that the conventional wisdom of the 2010s was wrong, and that technology really can solve a lot of our problems after all." [1]
- Source: Noahpinion, "Techno-optimism for 2024" [1]
Learning: Active vs. Passive Techno-Optimism. Smith categorizes techno-optimism into four types based on two axes: positive (believing more useful technology exists) vs. normative (believing technology will make the world better), and active (requiring the right policies) vs. passive (believing it will happen regardless). He identifies as an "active" optimist on both fronts, stressing the importance of good policy. [2][3]
- Source: Noahpinion, "Thoughts on techno-optimism" [3]
Quote: "Personally, I subscribe to both positive and normative techno-optimism, but with reservations in both cases. I think there are plenty of new important discoveries out there to be made, but I do think it's likely that they've become more expensive to find. I also think technology usually ends up making life better for most people, but that this isn't always the case." [2][3]
- Source: Noahpinion, "Thoughts on techno-optimism" [3]
Learning: Technology as an Expander of Human Choice. A core reason for Smith's techno-optimism is his belief that technology fundamentally expands human choice. He argues that giving people more options to live their lives as they see fit is a primary good. [3][4]
- Source: Noahpinion, "Thoughts on techno-optimism" [3]
Quote: "The main reason I think technological progress is usually good for humanity...is that I fundamentally believe that humans should be given as much choice as possible." [3]
- Source: Noahpinion, "Thoughts on techno-optimism" [3]
Learning: The "Roaring 20s" May Be Upon Us. Smith has expressed hope that the 2020s could be a period of renewed productivity and technological advancement, spurred by innovations in AI, biotech (like mRNA vaccines), and energy. [1]
- Source: Noahpinion, "Techno-optimism for 2024" [1]
Quote: "One technology that I'm consistently hyper-optimistic about is batteries. This is because batteries represent something humanity has never really had before — a way to store a large amount of energy and carry it around." [1]
- Source: Noahpinion, "Techno-optimism for 2024" [1]

On the "Abundance Agenda"

Learning: The Core Tenet of the Abundance Agenda. The central idea is that many of society's problems stem from an artificial scarcity of essential goods like housing, energy, and healthcare. The solution is to focus policy on dramatically increasing the supply of these goods. [5][6]
- Source: YouTube, "Noah Smith & Kim-Mai Cutler: The Abundance Agenda for Housing and Economics" [5]; Matthew Noah Smith Substack, "The Abundance Agenda as Anti-Politics" [6]
Quote: "The big problem is that Americans don't have enough of the basic necessities of life. We need more housing so people can have cheap rent, more health care so it doesn't bankrupt us, and more energy so we can get to work and heat and cool our houses." [7]
- Source: Noahpinion, "It's time for Abundance to get mad" [7]
Learning: Abundance is a Supply-Side Progressivism. Smith advocates for a progressive version of supply-side economics. Instead of focusing on tax cuts for the wealthy, it focuses on deregulation and public investment to build more of what people need, aiming to make life more affordable for the middle and working classes. [5][8]
- Source: YouTube, "Noah Smith & Kim-Mai Cutler: The Abundance Agenda for Housing and Economics" [5]; Noahpinion, "Book review: 'Abundance'" [8]
Quote: "Every progressive talks about “affordable housing”, and yet blue cities and blue states build so little housing that it becomes unaffordable. Every progressive talks about the need to fight climate change, and yet environmental regulations have made it incredibly difficult to replace fossil fuels with green energy." [8]
- Source: Noahpinion, "Book review: 'Abundance'" [8]
Learning: Focus on Goals, Be Agnostic on Methods. A key part of the abundance agenda is to prioritize clear, material goals (e.g., cheaper housing, clean energy) and be flexible and pragmatic about the methods used to achieve them, whether that involves deregulation, government spending, or public-private partnerships. [5]
- Source: YouTube, "Noah Smith & Kim-Mai Cutler: The Abundance Agenda for Housing and Economics" [5]
Quote: "We need a stronger, more efficient, more capable government, and we also need less of the burdensome regulations that stop everything from getting built." [7]
- Source: Noahpinion, "It's time for Abundance to get mad" [7]

On Industrial Policy

Learning: The Free-Trade Consensus is Dead. Smith argues that the post-Cold War consensus in favor of free trade has collapsed among both policymakers and intellectuals in the U.S., replaced by a new consensus around the need for some form of industrial policy. [9]
- Source: Econlib, "Noah Smith’s Pessimistic Vision" [9]
Quote: "The free-trade consensus is dead as a doornail... both parties now agree on the need for industrial policy, and on many of its broad contours." [9]
- Source: Econlib, "Noah Smith’s Pessimistic Vision" [9]
Learning: Industrial Policy is Not Just "Picking Winners." Smith views industrial policy broadly, including not just subsidies but also deregulation (e.g., permitting reform to build green energy projects), infrastructure investment, and funding for R&D. The goal is to shape the economy to align with national priorities. [10][11]
- Source: YouTube, "A Debate with Scott Sumner: Industrial Policy, China, and National Security" [10]; YouTube, "Is Industrial Policy Effective? A Debate with The Economist's Mike Bird and Noah Smith" [11]
Quote: "In America, we are now calling deregulation industrial policy in many cases. And I've been calling it that and I think that that's not inappropriate." [10]
- Source: YouTube, "A Debate with Scott Sumner: Industrial Policy, China, and National Security" [10]
Learning: National Security is a Key Justification for Industrial Policy. In a world of geopolitical competition, particularly with China, Smith argues that industrial policy is necessary to ensure the U.S. maintains the manufacturing and technological capacity to defend itself and its allies. [12]
- Source: YouTube, "Two Cheers for Libertarianism and Econ 101 (with Noah Smith)" [12]
Quote on "Checkism": "Simply writing down the words 'Green energy gets $400 billion' does not actually specify the number of kilowatt-hours of power that become available to consumers... As a method of attaining these worthy goals, checkism is not fit for purpose." [13]
- Source: Noahpinion, "Progressives need to embrace progress" [13]
Learning: U.S. State Capacity is a Major Hurdle. Smith frequently expresses concern that the U.S. government's ability to effectively implement large-scale projects is weak due to bureaucracy, burdensome regulations like NEPA, and a lack of administrative capacity. [14]
- Source: National Review, "Industrial Policy Isn’t the Way to Get a Manufacturing Boom" [14]

On Economics and Politics

Learning: Poverty is the Default Condition. Smith argues that we should not ask why some nations are poor, but rather how any nation becomes rich. He sees poverty as the natural state and "industrial modernity" as the powerful, but fragile, engine that allows humanity to escape it. [15][16]
- Source: YouTube, "The Ever-Present Challenge of Escaping Poverty (with Noah Smith)" [15]; Econlib, "The Ever-Present Challenge of Escaping Poverty (with Noah Smith)" [16]
Quote: "To ask why some Societies in the world are still poor is the wrong question poverty is the default condition not just of humanity. but of the entire universe." [15]
- Source: YouTube, "The Ever-Present Challenge of Escaping Poverty (with Noah Smith)" [15]
Learning: A Renewed Appreciation for Econ 101. After initially being critical of its limitations, Smith gained a new appreciation for the basic principles of economics (like supply and demand) and libertarian arguments for free markets, especially after seeing the populist turn against them during the Trump administration. [12]
- Source: YouTube, "Two Cheers for Libertarianism and Econ 101 (with Noah Smith)" [12]
Quote: "Arguments that ARP [American Rescue Plan] didn't contribute to inflation are heavily influenced by motivated reasoning. There's also a bit of over-learning of the 'lessons' of 2008-12. People should have learned that Keynesian economics works; instead some just learned that more stimulus is always and everywhere good." [17]
- Source: Reddit, "Noah Smith AMA: Economics blogger at Noahpinion" [17]
Learning: Progressives Need to Focus on Progress. Smith criticizes a tendency within progressivism to become attached to procedures and methods (like endless environmental reviews or "checkism") that ultimately hinder the achievement of their own stated goals, such as building green energy or affordable housing. [13]
- Source: Noahpinion, "Progressives need to embrace progress" [13]
Quote: "Progressives are a bit like an advancing army that's being held up by a minefield that they themselves laid back when they were in retreat." [13]
- Source: Noahpinion, "Progressives need to embrace progress" [13]
Learning: The World is in a New Cold War. Smith posits that the world has entered a new era of great power competition, dividing into two main blocs: the "New Allies" (U.S., E.U., Japan, etc.) and the "New Axis" (China and Russia). This conflict is primarily economic for now. [18]
- Source: YouTube, "140 - The Future is Fiat | Noah Smith (Noahpinion)" [18]
Quote: "There's no country whose economy and whose progress cannot be wrecked by dumb policies. There's no country that's dumb-proof, it doesn't exist, and it can't exist." [19]
- Source: Faster, Please!, "My chat (+transcript) with economist Noah Smith on technological progress" [19]
Learning: Immigration is a Superpower. Smith is a strong advocate for high-skilled immigration, viewing it as a critical advantage for the U.S. economy and its capacity for innovation. He sees attempts to restrict it as a massive "own-goal." [19]
- Source: Faster, Please!, "My chat (+transcript) with economist Noah Smith on technological progress" [19]
Quote: "Macro is in its infancy. But it's better to be in your infancy than to be dead." [20]
- Source: Mercatus Center, "BONUS: Noah Smith on the State of Macroeconomics" [20]

Additional Quotes and Learnings

On Housing: "Housing is cheap because no one wants to live there." [21] (This is a summary of a common counterargument he addresses, highlighting that the problem is a lack of housing in high-demand areas.)
- Source: Reddit, "Noah Smith on Abundance" [21]
On AI and Jobs: "Overall, the preponderance of evidence seems to be very strongly against the notion that AI is killing jobs for new college graduates, or for tech workers, or for…well, anyone, really."
- Source: Marginal REVOLUTION, "Noah Smith on the economics of AI"
On Manufacturing: "A boom in construction spending on manufacturing doesn't necessarily translate into a boom in manufacturing production." [14]
- Source: National Review, "Industrial Policy Isn’t the Way to Get a Manufacturing Boom" [14]
On Political Messaging: "If you want to lead the Democrats, you need to fight... the abundance liberals need to get mad. And they need to get mad not at progressive NIMBYs and pressure groups, but at Donald Trump and the MAGA movement." [7]
- Source: Noahpinion, "It's time for Abundance to get mad" [7]
On Geopolitics: "[China and Russia's] goal is to kick America out of Eurasia, and to make it so that America is no longer the global hegemon... so they can have a freer hand in our backyard." [18]
- Source: YouTube, "140 - The Future is Fiat | Noah Smith (Noahpinion)" [18]
On Degrowth: He is highly critical of the "degrowth" movement, which he sees as a threat to the fight against global poverty. [16]
- Source: Econlib, "The Ever-Present Challenge of Escaping Poverty (with Noah Smith)" [16]
On Public Goods: "All the countries with the good road systems have the government extremely heavily involved... I doubt that the government is parasitical here I think that the government really does provide something that companies won't provide by themselves." [22]
- Source: YouTube, "What Noah Smith Thinks About Basically Everything" [22]
On Social Media's Impact: Smith argues that social media destroyed America's "geographical buffers," forcing disparate cultural and political groups into a constant, unproductive conflict that makes everyone feel under attack.
- Source: Upworthy, "Noah Smith | Articles and News"
Quote on National Identity: "A hippie in Oakland and a redneck in the suburbs of Houston both fundamentally felt that they were part of the same unified nation; that nation looked very different to people in each place... this generally allowed America to function."
- Source: Upworthy, "Noah Smith | Articles and News"
On Crypto: He views cryptocurrency as an interesting technology but is skeptical of the libertarian belief that it can simply circumvent or destroy government institutions like the Federal Reserve. [22]
- Source: YouTube, "What Noah Smith Thinks About Basically Everything" [22]
On the Role of Pundits: "I think that we're having this transition to something called industrial policy... and I think that people like Scott [Sumner] and myself will be key to shaping what that means." [10]
- Source: YouTube, "A Debate with Scott Sumner: Industrial Policy, China, and National Security" [10]
On Western Complacency: "But the people of the West may feel so secure in their riches and comfort that they might now take those benefits for granted. They may not realize how vulnerable their prosperity is." [23]
- Source: Noah Smith's Substack Page [23]
On Economic Growth in Developing Nations: "Growth is going to make a huge difference to the people of Bangladesh. It's going to be life-changing, just as it was life-changing for us in the 20th century. They're going to have their 20th century now, and that's amazing." [19]
- Source: Faster, Please!, "My chat (+transcript) with economist Noah Smith on technological progress" [19]
On MMT (Modern Monetary Theory): He describes MMT as a "cartoon version of post-Keynesian economics" and argues that if a theory can never be proven wrong, it's not a real theory. [20]
- Source: Mercatus Center, "BONUS: Noah Smith on the State of Macroeconomics" [20]
On the Limits of Libertarianism: He critiques libertarianism for underestimating the importance of national defense and the public goods that support it, as well as for not having a compelling narrative of national belonging. [12]
- Source: YouTube, "Two Cheers for Libertarianism and Econ 101 (with Noah Smith)" [12]
On the Future of Journalism: "I think that there's actually way too much of what I do in the world there's way too many opinion journalists tossing out takes and think pieces. I'm in an incredibly crowded field and there's just too much of it to keep up." [22]
- Source: YouTube, "What Noah Smith Thinks About Basically Everything" [22]
On the Importance of Building: "If Humanity simply doesn't build anything... we will exist at the level of wild animals. This is simply physics." [15]
- Source: YouTube, "The Ever-Present Challenge of Escaping Poverty (with Noah Smith)" [15]
On Political Polarization: He believes the MAGA movement is "fundamentally an online creature — a weak bond between a bunch of people whom social media has taught to have the same notional enemies." [23]
- Source: Noah Smith's Substack Page [23]
On Learning from Other Countries: "The U.S. will be able to learn from China's successes as well as its failures, just as we learned from the successes and failures of Japan and South Korea in the 20th century." [24]
- Source: Noahpinion, "New Industrialist Roundup 2024" [24]
On the Human Condition: "The universe itself is always trying to kill us with rocks from space and diseases and just hunger that reappears every few hours." [15]
- Source: YouTube, "The Ever-Present Challenge of Escaping Poverty (with Noah Smith)" [15]

Learn more:

Lessons from Noah Smith

On Techno-Optimism and Progress

On the "Abundance Agenda"

On Industrial Policy

On Economics and Politics

Additional Quotes and Learnings

Written by Antoine Buteau

Lessons from Jason Crawford

Lessons from John Gribbin