Sam Hinkie is the former General Manager of the Philadelphia 76ers, known for his radical, long-term team-building strategy often called "The Process." His approach, though controversial, has become a case study in strategic thinking, probabilistic decision-making, and organizational change.

On Process and Long-Term Thinking

  1. "A league with 30 intense competitors requires a culture of finding new, better ways to solve problems."(Source: Sam Hinkie's Resignation Letter)
  2. "A core tenet of our trading strategy has been to acquire optionality." (Source: Sam Hinkie's Resignation Letter)
  3. "The goal is not to be the 8th seed. The goal is to win a championship." (A widely summarized distillation of his philosophy, articulated in various interviews and embodied by his actions). (Source Context: The Ringer)
  4. "We're playing a long game. We're not going to take shortcuts." (A common refrain during his tenure, reflecting the core of his strategy). (Source Context: Sports Illustrated)
  5. "Having a long-term view is a competitive advantage in a world that is overwhelmingly short-term focused."(A central theme from his public talks on decision-making). (Source: Sam Hinkie at the 2016 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference)
  6. "In the short term, you can be right for the wrong reasons. In the long term, the process will win out." (A paraphrasing of his belief in process over outcomes, a key theme in his letter). (Source Context: Sam Hinkie's Resignation Letter)
  7. "Trust The Process." (While Hinkie embodied the phrase, it was famously coined by then-76ers player Tony Wroten. Hinkie later embraced it). (Source: ESPN)
  8. "The illusion of control is an opiate, though. It can be dangerously addictive." (Source: Sam Hinkie's Resignation Letter)
  9. "It’s important to be patient, but not too patient." (A concept he discussed when explaining the need to know when to pivot from asset accumulation to building a team). (Source Context: PandoDaily Fireside Chat)
  10. "You have to be willing to be misunderstood for long periods of time." (A key learning often attributed to Jeff Bezos, which Hinkie included in his resignation letter as a guiding principle). (Source: Sam Hinkie's Resignation Letter)

On Decision-Making and Uncertainty

  1. "The most important thing is to have a framework for making decisions." (A foundational concept from his talks on strategic thinking). (Source: Sam Hinkie at the 2016 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference)
  2. "We should be in the business of making the best possible decision, not the most popular one." (The core philosophy that drove his often-unpopular trades and draft strategies). (Source Context: Sports Illustrated)
  3. "A Bayesian approach to decision-making is a core part of our philosophy." (He frequently referenced Bayesian inference, the idea of updating your beliefs as new evidence comes in). (Source: Sam Hinkie's Resignation Letter)
  4. "You can't be certain. You have to be comfortable with uncertainty." (A central theme in his discussions about drafting and forecasting player potential). (Source: Sam Hinkie at the 2016 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference)
  5. "Thinking probabilistically is a muscle. You have to build it." (A concept he has discussed in various talks about improving decision-making). (Source Context: PandoDaily Fireside Chat)
  6. "Avoiding bad decisions is just as important as making good ones." (His strategy of trading players for future assets was often about avoiding bad contracts or losing players for nothing in free agency). (Source Context: The Ringer)
  7. "What you want to do is to raise the ceiling of the organization." (This was his justification for bottoming out—to get picks high enough to draft a potential superstar). (Source Context: Sports Illustrated)
  8. "Confirmation bias is a real and dangerous thing." (He references the work of Daniel Kahneman and the need to fight cognitive biases). (Source: Sam Hinkie's Resignation Letter)
  9. "To attempt to do something extraordinary, you have to be willing to do something different." (This belief underpins the entire "Process" experiment). (Source Context: The Ringer)
  10. "Invert, always invert." (He quoted the German mathematician Carl Jacobi in his letter, advocating for looking at problems backward to find solutions). (Source: Sam Hinkie's Resignation Letter)

On Talent, Innovation, and Learning

  1. "The single most important factor to winning is talent." (A simple but core belief that drove the entire asset-accumulation strategy). (Source Context: Sports Illustrated)
  2. "Strive to be a learning organization." (He stressed the importance of institutional learning and continuous improvement). (Source Context: Sam Hinkie's Resignation Letter)
  3. "Read voraciously. It’s the best way to get new ideas." (His resignation letter is filled with quotes and references to a wide range of thinkers, from Abraham Lincoln to Seth Klarman). (Source: Sam Hinkie's Resignation Letter)
  4. "Look for ideas in other fields. Sports is often behind other industries." (He frequently drew parallels between his strategy and those used in Silicon Valley and investment banking). (Source: Sam Hinkie's Resignation Letter)
  5. "The draft is a stochastic event. Your job is to get as many lottery tickets as possible." (A widely used analogy to explain his strategy of amassing draft picks). (Source Context: ESPN))
  6. "It's about finding asymmetries of information." (A classic investment term he applied to sports, seeking an edge by knowing more than competitors). (Source Context: PandoDaily Fireside Chat)
  7. "Don't be afraid to be contrarian." (He quotes investor Seth Klarman on this topic: "The consensus view is often wrong, so you have to be a contrarian.") (Source: Sam Hinkie's Resignation Letter)
  8. "The cost of a mistake in the NBA draft is enormous." (This belief justified the strategy of gathering as many high-value picks as possible to mitigate the risk of any single bust). (Source Context: Sports Illustrated)
  9. "Intellectual humility is crucial. You have to be willing to admit you're wrong." (This is a key component of Bayesian thinking, which he championed). (Source: Sam Hinkie's Resignation Letter)
  10. "Your job is to be the steward of the organization for the next person." (Reflects his long-term focus on the overall health of the franchise). (Source Context: The Ringer)

On Leadership and Communication

  1. "Be a shepherd, not a sheep." (A philosophy of independent thinking that defined his leadership style). (Source Context: ESPN))
  2. "You have to be able to communicate your vision clearly and consistently." (While criticized for his lack of public media engagement, he was known for being meticulous in his communication with ownership). (Source Context: Sam Hinkie's Resignation Letter)
  3. "Life is not zero-sum. We can all be better." (Source: Sam Hinkie's Resignation Letter)
  4. "A leader’s job is to absorb uncertainty from the organization." (He believed in insulating his staff from short-term pressures so they could focus on long-term goals). (Source: Stanford GSB Lecture Summary)
  5. "The pressure from the outside is immense. You have to have a strong inner conviction." (A necessary trait to withstand the years of public criticism he faced). (Source Context: ESPN))
  6. "Find people who are smarter than you and get out of their way." (A common leadership principle he practiced, hiring a diverse and talented front office staff). (Source Context: Sports Illustrated)
  7. "Transparency with your team is critical." (He was known for being incredibly open internally about the team's long-term strategy). (Source Context: The Ringer)
  8. "Take the blame when things go wrong, and give credit when they go right." (A classic leadership tenet evident in his resignation, where he took full ownership of the team's record). (Source Context: Sam Hinkie's Resignation Letter)
  9. "You need allies. You can't do it alone." (His relationship with the 76ers ownership group was crucial to getting "The Process" approved and sustained for as long as it was). (Source Context: ESPN))
  10. "Sometimes the best move is the one you don't make." (He often held onto assets and cap space, resisting the urge to make a suboptimal move just to "do something."). (Source Context: Sports Illustrated)

Meta-Learnings from "The Process"

  1. Asset Accumulation is a Powerful Strategy: The entire strategy was based on turning current players into future assets like draft picks. (Source: Sam Hinkie's Resignation Letter)
  2. Embrace Optionality: He prized financial and roster flexibility above all else, ensuring the team could act decisively when an opportunity presented itself. (Source: Sam Hinkie's Resignation Letter)
  3. The Importance of a Long Time Horizon: Hinkie's willingness to operate on a 5+ year timeline was his biggest structural advantage. (Source: Sam Hinkie at the 2016 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference)
  4. Disruptive Innovation is Often Resisted: "The Process" was so unconventional that it drew backlash from media, fans, and reportedly the NBA league office. (Source Context: ESPN))
  5. Process Can Be Vindicated by Results (Even if You're Not There to See It): The foundation of the 76ers' later success (Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Dario Saric) was built entirely from assets acquired during Hinkie's tenure. (Source Context: The Ringer)
  6. Narrative Matters: A key critique of Hinkie is that his lack of public engagement allowed others to frame his complex strategy as simply "tanking," which ultimately hurt his public and league-wide support. (Source Context: ESPN))
  7. Know Your Environment: He built his strategy by deeply understanding and exploiting the incentives created by the NBA's draft lottery and rookie wage scale. (Source: Sports Illustrated)
  8. The Power of an Idea: "Trust The Process" evolved from a team strategy into a cultural movement, inspiring a book and becoming a case study in business schools. (Source Context: Tanking to the Top by Yaron Weitzman)
  9. You Need Organizational Alignment: "The Process" could only last as long as ownership was fully bought in. His resignation came when that alignment fractured with the hiring of Jerry Colangelo. (Source: Sam Hinkie's Resignation Letter)
  10. Legacy is Complicated: Hinkie is seen by some as a brilliant innovator and by others as someone who damaged the integrity of the sport. His legacy remains one of the most debated in modern sports history. (Source: The Ringer)