Lessons from Scott Alexander

Scott Alexander, the author behind the influential blogs Slate Star Codex and its successor Astral Codex Ten, is a psychiatrist and writer known for his deep dives into complex topics spanning rationality, philosophy, ethics, and culture. His essays are characterized by a unique blend of data analysis, intellectual humility, and a willingness to explore controversial ideas with nuance.

On Rationality and Cognition

1. The Nature of Disagreement: Conflict Theory vs. Mistake Theory

Learning: Political and social disagreements can be broadly categorized into two types. "Mistake theorists" view disagreements as arising from different information or analytical errors, believing that with enough evidence and goodwill, a consensus can be reached. "Conflict theorists" see the world as a battle between different groups with irreconcilable interests, where power dynamics, not reasoned arguments, determine outcomes. [1]
Quote: "Mistake theorists treat politics as science, engineering, or medicine. The State is diseased. We’re all doctors, standing around arguing over the best diagnosis and cure... Conflict theorists treat politics as war. Different blocs with different interests are forever fighting to determine whether the State exists to enrich the Elites or to help the People." [1]
- Source: Conflict Vs. Mistake - https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/01/24/conflict-vs-mistake/ [1]

2. The Limits of Evidence: Beware the Man of One Study

Learning: Relying on a single study to form a strong opinion is a recipe for being wrong. Due to statistical noise, publication bias, and varying study quality, any single finding can be an outlier. A robust understanding requires looking at the totality of the evidence, such as through meta-analyses and systematic reviews. [2]
Quote: "Aquinas famously said: beware the man of one book. I would add: beware the man of one study." [2]
- Source: Beware The Man Of One Study - https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/12/12/beware-the-man-of-one-study/ [2]

3. The Flexibility of Concepts: Categories Were Made for Man

Learning: Our categories for understanding the world are tools, not inherent features of reality. The "correctness" of a category (like whether a whale is a "fish") depends on its usefulness for a particular purpose. Debates over definitions are often proxies for debates over what purposes are most important. [3]
Quote: "I am making the much stronger claim that, even if the ancient Hebrews had taken enough of a break from murdering Philistines and building tabernacles to sequence the genomes of all known species of aquatic animals, there’s nothing whatsoever wrong, false, or incorrect with them calling a whale a fish." [3]
- Source: The Categories Were Made For Man, Not Man For The Categories - https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/11/21/the-categories-were-made-for-man-not-man-for-the-categories/ [3]

4. The Noise in the Data: Lizardman's Constant

Learning: In any sufficiently large poll or survey, a certain percentage of respondents will give nonsensical answers, either out of mischief, misunderstanding, or apathy. Alexander pegs this "Lizardman's Constant" at around 4%, the proportion of people who, in one poll, claimed lizardmen run the earth. This serves as a reminder to be skeptical of poll results that show small minorities holding bizarre beliefs. [4][5]
Quote: "4% of Americans believe lizardmen are running the Earth." [5]
- Source: Lizardman's Constant is 4% - https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/04/12/noisy-poll-results-and-reptilian-muslim-climatologists-from-mars/ [6]

5. The Motte and Bailey Fallacy

Learning: In arguments, people often use a rhetorical strategy called the "motte and bailey." They make a controversial, desirable claim (the "bailey") and when challenged, retreat to a much more defensible, often trivial, claim (the "motte"). Once the pressure is off, they return to asserting the bailey. [7]
Quote: "The motte is a humble, easy-to-defend position... The bailey is a desirable, beautiful, spacious, but less-defensible position."
- Source: All In All, Another Brick In The Motte - https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/11/03/all-in-all-another-brick-in-the-motte/

On Society and Systems

6. The Engine of Dysfunction: Meditations on Moloch

Learning: "Moloch" is a metaphor for coordination problems where individuals acting in their own rational self-interest lead to disastrous collective outcomes. From arms races to advertising spam, these "multipolar traps" push systems toward destructive competition, even when everyone involved would prefer a more cooperative world. [8][9]
Quote: "From a god’s-eye-view, we can optimize the system to 'everyone agrees to stop doing this at once', but no one within the system is able to effect the transition without great risk to themselves." [10]
- Source: Meditations On Moloch - https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/ [10]

7. The Nature of Tribalism: I Can Tolerate Anything Except the Outgroup

Learning: True tolerance isn't about accepting things you already agree with; it's about enduring things you genuinely find disagreeable. We often mistake our disdain for our "outgroup" (the group we define ourselves against) for principled stands, while easily "forgiving" the transgressions of our "ingroup" or those we don't see as a threat. [11]
Quote: "It seems to me that you only pardon the sins that you don’t really think sinful. You only forgive criminals when they commit what you don’t regard as crimes, but rather as conventions." [11]
- Source: I Can Tolerate Anything Except The Outgroup - https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/09/30/i-can-tolerate-anything-except-the-outgroup/ [11]

8. The Mechanics of Outrage: The Toxoplasma of Rage

Learning: Controversial and outrage-inducing ideas (memes) spread like a parasite. Issues that are nuanced or have a clear right answer don't generate much discussion. But issues that are ambiguous, emotionally charged, and create a clear divide between ingroup and outgroup are perfectly evolved to hijack our attention and social media feeds. [12]
Quote: "A moral action that can be taken just as well by an outgroup member as an ingroup member is crappy signaling and crappy identity politics. If you want to signal how strongly you believe in taking victims seriously, you talk about it in the context of the least credible case you can find." [12]
- Source: The Toxoplasma Of Rage - https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/12/17/the-toxoplasma-of-rage/ [12]

9. The Roots of American Culture: Albion's Seed

Learning: In his review of David Hackett Fischer's book, Alexander highlights the thesis that American culture is not monolithic but is composed of four distinct British folkways that settled in different regions (Puritans, Cavaliers, Quakers, and Borderers). Their values continue to shape regional politics and cultural conflicts to this day. [13]
Quote: "Different parts of the country were settled by very different groups of Englishmen with different regional backgrounds, religions, social classes, and philosophies. The colonization process essentially extracted a single stratum of English society, isolated it from all the others, and then plunked it down on its own somewhere in the Eastern US." [13]
- Source: Book Review: Albion's Seed - https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/04/27/book-review-albions-seed/ [13]

10. A Model for Coexistence: Archipelago and Atomic Communitarianism

Learning: As a thought experiment for resolving cultural conflicts, Alexander proposes the "Archipelago": a world where different communities can form their own societies based on their own rules, with a minimal overarching government preventing violence between them. This explores the tension between individual liberty and community values. [14][15]
Quote: "The goal is a society where everyone can be with their own kind of people, where 'their own kind of people' is defined by values, not by race or other immutable characteristics."
- Source: Archipelago and Atomic Communitarianism - https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/06/07/archipelago-and-atomic-communitarianism/

On Ethics and Personal Growth

11. The Calculus of Good: Nobody Is Perfect, Everything Is Commensurable

Learning: It's easy to feel overwhelmed by the expectation to be perfectly ethical in every aspect of life. A more practical approach is to recognize that doing good is a matter of degree. Instead of aiming for an impossible standard of perfection, one can choose a manageable, consistent contribution (like donating 10% of one's income) and be at peace with it. [16]
Quote: "If you want to feel anxiety and self-loathing for not giving 100% of your income, minus living expenses, to charity, then no one can stop you. I, on the other hand, would prefer to call that 'not being perfect'." [16]
- Source: Nobody Is Perfect, Everything Is Commensurable - https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/12/19/nobody-is-perfect-everything-is-commensurable/ [16]

12. The Difficulty of Goodness

Learning: Meaningful positive actions are inherently difficult. The easy path often leads to mediocrity or worse.
Quote: "All good is hard. All evil is easy. Dying, losing, cheating, and mediocrity are easy. Stay away from easy."
- Source: Unsong (his fictional work, but this quote is widely cited as a core principle) - http://unsongbook.com/

13. On Argument and Humility

Learning: The goal of an argument should not be to win, but to understand. Genuinely appreciating the other person's perspective is more effective and intellectually honest than faking it.
Quote: "Don't fake an appreciation for the other person's point of view, actually develop an appreciation for the other person's point of view." [11]
- Source: Scott Alexander, Wikiquote (This quote is widely attributed to his blog writings, encapsulating a key principle of the rationalist community) - https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Scott_Alexander [11]

14. The Problem with Problems

Learning: The absence of problems is a sign of stagnation, not success. Problems are an indicator of progress and engagement with the world.
Quote: "Understand that most problems are a good sign. Problems indicate that progress is being made, wheels are turning, you are moving toward your goals. Beware when you have no problems. Then you've really got a problem." [16]
- Source: The Daily Motivator (This quote is attributed to Scott Alexander, reflecting a common theme in his work about embracing complexity and challenges) - https://greatday.com/q/?q=1437 [16]

15. On the Nature of Truth

Learning: Scott's blog Astral Codex Ten is named after a concept from Sanskrit, "ṛta," which he defines as the intersection of truth, rationality, harmony, and order. This reflects his overarching project of trying to understand the fundamental principles that govern reality and how we can better align with them. [17]
Quote: "The dictionary defines ṛta as 'truth', but I think of it as the intersection of all these concepts, a sort of hidden node at the center of art and harmony and rationality and the rest." [17]
- Source: About Astral Codex Ten - https://www.astralcodexten.com/about [17]

The remaining quotes and learnings are compiled from across his essays, reflecting the breadth of his intellectual curiosity.

16. On Policy: "If your decision strategy is identifying the Evil People and then minimizing their utility, you probably shouldn't be making public policy." - Slate Star Codex quotes thread, Reddit [18]

17. On Capitalism: "The basic rule of free enterprise: You must give in order to get." - BrainyQuote [13]

18. On Universal Laws: "The wages of everything is Death! This is a Communist universe, the amount you work makes no difference to your eventual reward." - Unsong [1]

19. On False Beliefs: "Understand that many false beliefs don't come from simple lying or stupidity, but from complex mixtures of truth and falsehood filtered by complex cognitive biases." - Goodreads [1]

20. On Asymmetric Weapons: "The PETA Principle: the more controversial something is, the more it gets talked about." - The Toxoplasma of Rage [12]

21. On Self-Deception: "Humans are notoriously bad liars." - Wikiquote [11]

22. On Psychiatry: "DSM-V has replaced various gradations of addiction with a single Substance Use Disorder... it is neatly poetic that, at least in a purely linguistic sense, doing anything with anything that exists is now a diagnosable mental disorder." - Slate Star Codex quotes thread, Reddit [18]

23. On Progress: "This is an age of whalefall, an age of excess carrying capacity, an age when we suddenly find ourselves with a thousand-mile head start on Malthus." - Wikiquote [11]

24. On the Media: "Race relations are at historic lows not because white people and black people disagree on very much, but because the media absolutely worked its tuchus off to find the single issue that white people and black people disagreed over the most and ensure that it was the only issue anybody would talk about." - The Toxoplasma of Rage [12]

25. On Intellectual Bubbles: "If you’re part of the Blue Tribe, then your outgroup isn’t al-Qaeda, or Muslims, or blacks... it’s the Red Tribe." - I Can Tolerate Anything Except The Outgroup [19]

26. On Governance: "You'll never hear the terms 'principal-agent problem,' 'rent-seeking,' or 'aligning incentives' from socialists. That's because they expect ideology to solve all practical considerations of governance." - Conflict Vs. Mistake [1]

27. On Moral Complexity: "Nobody is perfect. But everything is commensurable." - Nobody Is Perfect, Everything Is Commensurable [16]

28. On Founder Effects: The deep-seated cultural and political differences in the United States can be traced back to the distinct values of the small founding populations in each region. - Book Review: Albion's Seed [13]

29. On Coordination: Even if every individual in a system desires a better outcome, they can remain trapped in a harmful equilibrium without a mechanism to coordinate a simultaneous shift. - Meditations on Moloch [10]

30. On Definitions: The usefulness of a definition is more important than its "truth." - The Categories Were Made For Man, Not Man For The Categories [3]

31. On Polling: Don't over-interpret small, strange polling results; they may just be statistical noise or trolling. - Lizardman's Constant is 4% [6]

32. On Debate: Mistake theorists believe debate is essential for finding truth; conflict theorists believe it's a tool for gaining power. - Conflict Vs. Mistake [1]

33. On Tolerance: You don't earn virtue points for "tolerating" something you already find acceptable. - I Can Tolerate Anything Except The Outgroup [11]

34. On Memetics: The most successful memes are often the most divisive. - The Toxoplasma of Rage [12]

35. On Moral Obligation: The feeling of being constantly outraged and mired in the latest political battle is a feature of some modern ethics, not a bug. - Nobody Is Perfect, Everything Is Commensurable [16]

36. On Game Theory: Many of society's ills can be modeled as prisoner's dilemmas or other game-theoretic traps. - Meditations on Moloch [8]

37. On Scientific Literacy: A single study is just a single data point, and data points can be noisy. - Beware The Man Of One Study [2]

38. On Identity: Our group identities are often defined more by who we are against than who we are. - I Can Tolerate Anything Except The Outgroup [11]

39. On Political Discourse: "The correct response is to crush them." (Describing the conflict theorist's view of their opponents). - Conflict Vs. Mistake [1]

40. On Reality: "It turned out keeping reality bound by mathematical laws was a useful hack preventing the Devil from existing." - Unsong [1]

41. On Ambition: "Seen from Earth, a comet is a prodigy... They call it crooked because it is too straight. They call it unpredictable because it is too fixed. They call it chaotic because it is too linear." - Unsong [1]

42. On Bureaucracy: "Moloch whose buildings are judgment! Moloch the vast stone of war! Moloch the stunned governments!" - Meditations on Moloch (quoting Allen Ginsberg) [20]

43. On Economics: "Moloch whose mind is pure machinery! Moloch whose blood is running money!" - Meditations on Moloch (quoting Allen Ginsberg) [20]

44. On Social Justice: The language of social justice can sometimes be used to sanctify ad hominem arguments and shut down debate. - I Can Tolerate Anything Except The Outgroup

45. On Self-Improvement: The first step to wisdom is noticing your own confusion. - Socratic Grilling

46. On the Cost of Change: "Change is necessary in the world, people don't change if they're totally happy and comfortable, therefore discomfort is necessary." - Nobody Is Perfect, Everything Is Commensurable [16]

47. On the Filter Bubble: We are often most intolerant of those who are ideologically closest to us, because they represent a more immediate threat to our identity. - I Can Tolerate Anything Except The Outgroup [11]

48. On the Nature of Evil: "Moloch is not a person. It is a system." - Meditations on Moloch

49. On Epistemic Status: Prefacing claims with an "epistemic status" (e.g., "very confident," "speculative") is a useful tool for intellectual honesty. - A common practice on his blogs.

50. On the Goal of Rationality: "With malice towards none, with charity towards all, with firmness in the ṛta as reflective equilibrium gives us to see the ṛta, let us restart our mutual explorations, begin anew the joyful reduction of uncertainty wherever it may lead us." - Still Alive [19]

Learn more:

Lessons from Scott Alexander

On Rationality and Cognition

On Society and Systems

On Ethics and Personal Growth

Written by Antoine Buteau

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