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AI

Essays, profiles, and reading notes on AI products, AI systems, adoption, agents, and company strategy.

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Prediction Machines: Book Summary

Artificial intelligence does not bring artificial intelligence; it brings cheap prediction. Prediction is defined practically as the process of filling in missing information, whether that information pertains to the past, the present, or the future.

AI 2027 Is a Scenario, Not a Prediction

A detailed scenario about agents, automated AI research, model misalignment, geopolitical competition, and the choice between racing and slowing down. Its value lies in testing assumptions about timelines, coordination, and control rather than treating the scenario as destiny.

Agents Change Work by Lowering the Cost of Execution

A Perplexity field study compares conversational search with autonomous agent execution and finds large time savings, lower dissatisfaction, and broader task scope. The comparison shows why autonomy changes both the economics and ambition of knowledge work.

Synthetic Consumers Work Better When They Talk First

A consumer research paper finds that LLMs can match human purchase-intent surveys when they answer in free text before being mapped back to Likert ratings. The result favors better survey design over treating synthetic respondents as wholesale human replacements.

AGI May Be a Phase, Not the Finish Line

A DeepMind report argues that human-level AGI may be followed by several pathways toward superintelligence, each constrained by data, compute, embodiment, and coordination bottlenecks. It reframes AGI as an intermediate capability threshold rather than a stable endpoint.

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